It is now almost certain that John McCain is going to be the 2008 Republican nominee for President. I doubt that I would classify him as a “true Conservative,” but he is in the best position to lead the party to victory in November. We conservatives need to make it clear that we support McCain as our candidate and persuade Romney and Huckabee to quit now.
Clinton or Obama?
Our main goal has to be to defeat Clinton or Obama in November. With people talking about Obama as a “movement” rather than a candidate, my prediction — and fear — is that he will be the Democrats’ candidate for the general election. Why am I afraid of Obama’s getting the nomination? Because, to put it very bluntly, he has a special ability to get people to shut off their minds and vote based on pure sentimentality: change, hope, and so on. Bill Clinton was able to do the same thing. People have a low-grade but nagging sense of fear and world unpopularity, and Obama is the optimistic and inspirational guy that people trust to make their problems go away. He’s the escapists’ candidate.
I have a strong suspicion that many of Obama’s supporters are fad followers. Consider his popularity among the young, where the influence of friends and acquaintances is greater than among those of us who are older, and where social pressure can easily give rise to a “movement.” I wonder how many of them would be supporting him if everyone else weren’t doing it. His popularity depends on social pressure by people who are emboldened to “share the good news” about Obama to all their friends because all their friends are doing the same thing. It’s sad but true: people follow fads, and for that reason alone, Obama will be the Democrats’ choice.
How to Defeat Obama (or Clinton)
Clinton will be the easier candidate to defeat. She has a long history of speeches, votes, and influence brokering that will make her ripe for attack. She is a 1960s leftist all grown up. The voters would have a clear choice on the issues, but the issues would be at the center in a general election campaign against her. She just doesn’t have Bill’s or Barack’s charisma and would have to resort to policy talk.
Obama’s candidacy, based as it is on sentiment, would be a tougher challenge. The Republican candidate will have to single-handedly shift the voters’ attention from their felt needs in the present to the issues that matter for our whole nation now and in the future. Nobody can do that better than John McCain. He is very nearly a one-issue candidate (terrorism/Iraq), but he has defined a clear position on that issue and been able to stick to it consistently over many years. He won’t be able to win in November based on that issue alone, but it shows that he can stick to the issues and make them the forefront of a campaign. Romney, by contrast, has tried to cobble together a base of support by making West Virginians worry about the future of coal energy and promising Michiganers a revitalized auto industry. People are now concerned about the economy, so Romney wants to talk all about his business experience, as if the President is actually CEO of America, Inc. Romney’s has been an ad hoc campaign from the get-go. His promises to hand out goodies will seem base compared to Obama’s noble vision of change and hope.
If Republicans are going to win in November, the Republican primary campaigns need to end now so that funds can be raised and saved for November, general election strategies set, and so that we can start focusing now on the issues that will define us before the voters in the coming months. Obama’s fundraising machine is setting new records day by day. Let the Democrats waste their resources duking it out with each other for weeks to come. Hopefully by the time this is over, people will be tired of hearing about them.
Head Off Bloomberg
We also need to make it a priority to help Mike Bloomberg, mayor of my fine city, keep from wasting his money. The rumors are getting stronger and stronger that Bloomberg might run as an independent candidate for the presidency. He would be foolish to do so. We could expect lots of media attention and lots of his own money spent, but he would embarrass himself with a terrible nationwide showing at the polls. There is no single issue that preoccupies the hearts and minds of ordinary people that isn’t being addressed by the two main parties. There’s no call for an independent candidate.
Even though Bloomberg would be a non-contender in a general election, he would add an element of unpredictability that we just want to avoid. He would also confuse voters and require both parties to spend more money on non-substantive advertising. A crowded field makes it harder to focus on the issues. Bloomberg is more likely to enter if the extremes of either party somehow take center stage, which would be Clinton and Romney or Huckabee. Obama already appeals to independents, and McCain is almost-conservative but with broad appeal to moderate Republicans and Democrats (consider Joe Lieberman).
In a way, the possibility of a Bloomberg candidacy has forced us conservatives to support McCain. If Romney or Huckabee were to be nominated, Bloomberg would probably jump in, and the Democrat would win in November for sure. If we conservatives consolidate behind McCain now, we can help convince Bloomberg not to throw his money away and make a nuisance of himself.
Mitt, Mike: it’s time to quit. Conservatives: make it clear to these guys that we’re backing McCain — at least this time around.
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